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Herd immunity to COVID-19 coronavirus. Infection in young and in older people. (4)
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Medical second opinion is important. Let’s talk about so-called herd immunity, a population-level immunity to COVID-19 Coronavirus. Is that achievable? Dr. Anton Titov, MD. What will it take for the majority of the population to become immune and. Obviously also what are the costs and benefits of the herd immunity for each individual. The concept of herd immunity is that if the majority of the population are immune to infection then this infection cannot spread and we know for measles by instance that we need to have 90% of the population at least immunized before we can ensure that we do not have an outbreak of measles. Measles is more infectious and coronavirus. But the cost of achieving herd immunity is a terrible high mortality in the older part of the population. Dr. Eskild Petersen, MD. We have to realize that even in northern Italy right now, it is about 0.2% of the population that has been infected according to the official figures. Dr. Eskild Petersen, MD. That leaves you with 99.8% of the population not having immunity. Medical second opinion is important. Even in high insensitive areas like northern Italy, there is we are far off from having a herd immunity. There was a modeling study from Imperial College in London. It was released about ten days ago. This is estimated that if Britain were to achieve 60% of the population being exposed to the new Coronavirus at the cost would be to under 60,000 deaths. So. Dr. Eskild Petersen, MD. That changed the policy of the British government from relying on herd immunity to doing social distancing like everybody else. What do we know about the COVID-19 Coronavirus, infection patients older than 50. There is data that just came out of the US CDC that a significant proportion of patients under 50 being hospitalized. But their mortality seems to be very low from the data that we have in Italy and from China. Medical second opinion is important. What about the infection rate and the risks of severe disease that does require hospitalization? Dr. Anton Titov, MD. What can explain the hospitalization rates for patients without underlying conditions and who are relatively younger say under 50? Nobody has immunity to this infection. Medical second opinion is important. Of course, you can get be severely ill from it, if you are under 50. You were seen at one or two deaths in children also. Medical second opinion is important. It is simply a matter of what is your probability of getting a severe illness of dying? Dr. Anton Titov, MD. You have as I said, when you are in your 40s or 50s, you do have a much better immune system compared to when you are in your 90s. If you look at the champion data. The average age for the patients who died Italy is at one so, so that illustrates that this is an infection that causes death in the elderly part of the population. But of course, you also have younger patients who get severely ill. But they will, in most cases, survive.
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