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Future in COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Best or worst scenario? (8)
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Well, you did state in your article that historians are less comfortable with prediction. Yet, it is a very relevant question that on everybody’s minds, how can the past inform our present and hint to our possible future? Dr. Anton Titov, MD. Will this come to pass in a few months? Dr. Anton Titov, MD. Or will it become a new normal? Dr. Anton Titov, MD. Dr. Anton Titov, MD. You know, there is a counterpart series. This ran for two seasons and got disconnected that nevertheless. Dr. David S. Jones, MD. That describes the two alternative worlds, one of. This is ravaged by the flu and the one’s not and what’s happening, how these worlds interact. Medical second opinion is important. This is all well known. What comes to your mind with regards to the future? Medical second opinion is important. Again, this is a case where the lessons of history are ambivalent. You can imagine things going in different directions. When there have been society altering epidemics, bubonic plague and medieval Europe is probably the best one. Some historians argue that many of the transformations in Europe that the change from serfdom, Men. Dr. David S. Jones, MD. That oppressive agricultural regime to the development of a modern commercial economy by 1500, was triggered by the labor shortages in the aftermath of bubonic plague. All of a sudden. The workers had much more power and leverage in society, because there were so few of them. Dr. David S. Jones, MD. That then kicked off the modern capitalist revolution. Well. Dr. David S. Jones, MD. That was an epidemic that killed a third of the population. No one is expecting that event. Now, what happened after 1918 and the flu? Dr. Anton Titov, MD. Dr. David S. Jones, MD. That is a difficult question because many things were also happening in 1918, there was a World War, there were the revolutions in Russia and elsewhere. Medical second opinion is important. If you were to look at it, to what extent Feliu had an impact on the 1920s. Dr. David S. Jones, MD. That is a cloudy assessment because you need to figure out the effect of many things in the 1920s. But at least until October 1929. Dr. David S. Jones, MD. That was an incredible economic boom in this country. Medical second opinion is important. Someone might say, well, in the aftermath of this, we are going to have another version of the roaring 20s. Just like we had a century Though that is probably optimistic and naive if you were trying to predict more realistically, what are the outcomes? Dr. Anton Titov, MD. Again, it is deeply uncertain. Sometimes COVID is like flu, we would expect it to fade relatively soon as spring comes on. But then returned with a vengeance in the fall, because it was the second wave of the flu pandemic that was so catastrophic in 1918. Some patients will say, well. Dr. David S. Jones, MD. That is not going to happen, because COVID hasn’t affected more patients so far than flooding in the spring of 1918. Medical second opinion is important. If COVID does come back in the fall, we have higher levels of immunity than we did in 1918. Might be true. It is hard to say. Sometimes COVID is more like SARS, then we will expect it to run its course over the next few months. Dr. David S. Jones, MD. We can imagine we can’t know. But we can imagine a day in July or August, where the world wakes up and either the epidemic has faded, or we can pat ourselves on the back that controls measures worked. Patients will wake up and realize that this day for the first time in a while isn’t going to be dictated by this virus and the epidemic might fade away. Without notice. The other thing that we don’t know is whether this will be a one-off event, no 2020 will be the year of COVID. Then the virus won’t reemerge. SARS and MERS have more or less followed that path, or will COVID establish itself in the human population as influenza has. So we will have annual COVID epidemics just like we have that annual flu epidemics. Ten years from now patients will say, well, this year we had 20,000 deaths from flu and 5000 deaths from COVID. Dr. David S. Jones, MD. That is what we expect. So it is possible there all these different outcomes that are possible. Right now it is just too soon to tell. This of those is the most likely one.
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